24 – pAsT pErFoRmAnCe DoEsN’t GuArAnTeE fUtUrE rEsUlTs

el Prof

October 4, 2024

GM HEARTLAND

🎶 Baby it’s Halloween / and we can buy Bitcoin again 🎶

—El Prof, Muhammed & Chad

MONEY MONEY MONEY

TOKEN

PRICE CHANGE

PRICE

Solana ($SOL)

-9.17%

$143.78

Helium ($HNT)

-7.08%

$7.21

Pyth ($PYTH)

-10.81%

$0.33

Save ($SLND)

-16.46%

$0.66

(Price changes reflect past 7 days as of 10.4.24)

  • I thought Bitcoin & crypto were safe haven assets in turbulent times… Nevertheless, we keep hodling.

BUZZWORD OF THE WEEK

to-ken:

  • An uniquely attributable digital asset.

  • A serial number or barcode that can be used to uniquely identify a specific item or category of equivalent items on a public ledger database system.

  • Rawest form of digital oil for AI Systems.

 

Bitcoin’s Tricky Treat

Buying a one-month Shudder subscription, bumping some Phoebe Bridgers, and putting off cleaning cobwebs for a month are just a few of the simple pleasures of Spooky Season. But for Bitcoin, this season tends to be anything but spooky.

Over the OG cryptocurrency’s history, October has historically been a month of major price surges. In 2013, Bitcoin skyrocketed from $100 to $1,000. By 2017, the price surged from $3,000 to nearly $20,000. In 2020, Bitcoin’s value jumped from $10,000 to a staggering $64,000.

Coincidence? Maybe. But a closer look suggests it may be a pattern created by some unique October conditions. And no, we’re not just talking crisp air and crunchy leaves. Potential contributing factors include:

  • Institutional rebalancing. October marks the start of Q4, and many institutional investors, such as hedge funds and family offices, conduct portfolio reviews during this time. Bitcoin can benefit from these strategic reallocations.

  • Market sentiment shift. After the quiet summer months, trading volumes tend to pick up in the fall. Only the degen-est degens stay glued to Coinbase on the beach.

  • Technical indicators: Historically, October often aligns with favorable chart patterns and technical indicators that signal bullish trend reversals. Traders watching for these patterns may take positions, further driving the price upward.

Now, of course, pAsT pErFoRmAnCe DoEsN’t GuArAnTeE fUtUrE rEsUlTs.

But looking at 2024, the stage may well be set for another October bull run. Bitcoin’s adoption is growing steadily, with large financial institutions continuing to dip their toes in the market. Moreover, the infrastructure around Bitcoin — such as custodial services, ETFs, and even central bank interest in Bitcoin — is stronger than ever.

The token’s currently trading right above $60,000. If it breaks above the $65,000, it could potentially spark a significant upward trend, similar to the explosive moves seen in past Octobers.

Don’t take our word for it though. Like seriously — don’t. We love presenting you with our research, but the most important advice we can give to the crypto curious is to do your own. Investing in crypto can be rewarding, but it’s also risky, and staying informed is key to navigating this ever-evolving market.

—Muhammed

The Daily Newsletter for Intellectually Curious Readers

  • We scour 100+ sources daily

  • Read by CEOs, scientists, business owners and more

  • 3.5 million subscribers

Meme Deng

“Hawk Tuah, spit on that thang.”

“That motherfucker, right there, isn’t real.”

“Is this real life? Is this going to be forever?”

What is it about a meme that makes it go viral? Can a meme be manufactured?

Well, we’d argue a lie repeated three or more times becomes common wisdom. And with digital advertising on social media as its megaphone, it can spread faster than recycled air on a plane.

Which brings us to Moo Deng, a pygmy hippo that is oh so cute — and, naturally, $moodeng, a pygmy-hippo-inspired meme coin that is oh-so-overvalued. The token is currently valued at a $220 million market cap. That’s half its SNL high of nearly half a billion in value.

At Token2049, renowned Bitcoin maximalist Murad Mahmudov had an interesting hot take on the Moo Deng — and, by extension, meme coin — mania. Mahmudov called memecoins the golden child of this super cycle, arguing they are effectively a protest of the VC-backed, value-focused products by retail investors. Why? Because whatever value they’re offering, those projects primarily use retail to offload risk and dump token prices. Based on the unlock schedules of many large infrastructure projects, this will continue well beyond 2026, adding immense sell pressures on those particular tokens.

By contrast, meme coins are fully circulated projects with ever-growing communities of evangelists. Like a flywheel, they feed on themselves, enriching the earliest members — but almost democratically, rather than from the shadows.

I certainly am in support of that thesis. (And the value-backed projects supported by $mother and her adonitological acolytes.) But in my opinion, this is nothing new. The same impulses drove the NFT boom in 2021, and the OG meme coins like Doge and Shiba Inu before them.

So, if history rhymes, does that mean we’ll see another NFT resurgence this cycle? I’d argue, yes, likely before March. And, like $mother and the other relevant memes of this cycle, likely on Solana.

But our regulars probably know that. So maybe the real question is, will the NFT super cycle start with the artists again, and devolve into new cults communities? Or will the cults communities of old come alive with new value propositions that inspire the latest membership based communities to grow and flourish?

All I know is that Pudgy Penguins are probably a place to start looking. 👀

—El Prof

More Favorites

Subscribe to Our Newsletter

You Are OUR Heart & SOL

Heart&SOL is a daily newsletter at the intersection of AI, cryptography, and online culture.

Be first to the future.